{"id":7974999,"date":"2026-03-11T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thewrap.com\/?p=7974999"},"modified":"2026-03-11T08:09:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T15:09:03","slug":"oscars-2026-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thewrap.com\/industry-news\/awards\/oscars-2026-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscar Predictions: It’s ‘One Battle After Another’ vs. ‘Sinners’ in One Battle for the Ages"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n

This year\u2019s Oscars<\/a> really will be one battle after another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019ll be one battle after another between \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/a> and \u201cSinners,\u201d<\/a> as those two films face off in a record 11 different categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers are ridiculous.  \u201cSinners,\u201d Ryan Coogler\u2019s genre-bending rampage that looks at race relations through the lens of a vampire story, has a record-shattering 16 nominations; \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s wild look at revolutionary fervor over decades, has 13, only one shy of the previous high. Besides the 11 categories in which they\u2019re both nominated, there\u2019s one category in which only \u201cOne Battle\u201d is nominated but not \u201cSinners,\u201d and five in which \u201cSinners\u201d is nominated but not \u201cOne Battle.\u201d  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the categories open to all narrative films, there\u2019s only one category, Best Actress, in which neither film is nominated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019ll be facing off in picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, casting, cinematography, film editing, original score, production design and sound. That\u2019s a record for head-to-head contests on one Oscar show, beating the 10 categories in which \u201cOppenheimer\u201d and \u201cPoor Things\u201d competed in 2024. (For the record, \u201cOppenheimer\u201d won in six of those categories, \u201cPoor Things\u201d won in three and \u201cAmerican Fiction\u201d beat both of them in Best Adapted Screenplay.)  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to our best guesses, \u201cOne Battle\u201d will win four of the head-to-head contests (plus one category in which its main opponent isn\u2019t nominated), \u201cSinners\u201d will win four (ditto) and three others will go to neither of them. But those are just guesses, because this is one of the most confounding Oscar races in years, with a lot of categories \u2013 definitely including Best Picture \u2013 still up in the air.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"sinners-michael-b-jordan-image\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t'Sinners' Gets a Streaming Revenue Boost Thanks to Oscar Buzz | Chart<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

It’s an epic battle between two great films and two accomplished filmmakers who to all appearances like and admire each other. Here\u2019s what we think for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Picture<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees<\/em>:
\u201cBugonia\u201d
\u201cF1\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d 
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d 
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d 
\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d 
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unless the ranked-choice voting system somehow helps \u201cHamnet\u201d score an all-time upset, this is No. 1 on the list of tight races between \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d and \u201cSinners.\u201d You can use precedent to explain why \u201cOne Battle\u201d can\u2019t lose (nothing that\u2019s won the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and ACE Eddie Awards has ever lost), and to explain why \u201cSinners\u201d can\u2019t lose (no film has ever won the Actor Awards ensemble, WGA and ACE and lost) \u2013 which is to say, precedent might be pretty meaningless this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while \u201cSinners\u201d feels as if it picked up momentum at exactly the right time, and part of me really wants to pick it, I just can\u2019t ignore the fact that apart from the Actor Awards, which is only 50\/50 as a Best Picture predictor, \u201cOne Battle\u201d has won pretty much everything it could have won on the road to the Dolby Theater stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Director<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:
<\/em>Paul Thomas Anderson, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Ryan Coogler, \u201cSinners\u201d
Josh Safdie, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Joachim Trier, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d 
Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, \u201cHamnet\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Paul Thomas Anderson narrative \u2013 he\u2019s the greatest working filmmaker to have never won an Oscar \u2013 has been a part of this awards season since \u201cOne Battle\u201d first screened in September. Even the people who\u2019ve understandably jumped on the \u201cSinners\u201d train tend to think that PTA will win this award, just as Jane Campion, Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n, Damien Chazelle and Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu did for films that didn\u2019t win Best Picture over the last 11 years. But if Ryan Coogler wins, and he just might, you\u2019ll know exactly where the best-pic race is going.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>Paul Thomas Anderson, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Actor in a Leading Role <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees<\/em>:
Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d 
Leonardo DiCaprio, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Ethan Hawke, \u201cBlue Moon\u201d
Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d
Wagner Moura, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can one award on one March night turn an Oscar race upside down? Maybe. For months, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet had been the odds-on favorite, winning at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. But when Chalamet lost to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards on March 1, the room exploded and it immediately felt as if we had a new frontrunner. (It didn\u2019t help Chalamet that he had lost at the BAFTAs a week earlier, though his loss to a British actor who wasn\u2019t even eligible for the Oscar was far less damaging than his loss to Jordan.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke remain dark-horse possibilities, and Chalamet still has the most precursor wins \u2013 but unless we\u2019re attributing too much power to SAG-AFTRA voters (which we might be), this category\u2019s theme song has become Nina Simone\u2019s \u201cSinnerman.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"hamnet-jessie-buckley\"
Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet” (Focus Features)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Actress in a Leading Role<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Rose Byrne, \u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u201d
Kate Hudson, \u201cSong Sung Blue\u201d
Renate Reinsve, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Emma Stone, \u201cBugonia\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once we got past the early critics-group wins for Rose Byrne, this category has belonged to Jessie Buckley. Her performance is the best shot for \u201cHamnet\u201d to win an Oscar, and it\u2019s all but a lock \u2013 though the well-liked Kate Hudson, who went to the Oscars 25 years ago as the supporting-actress favorite for \u201cAlmost Famous\u201d but lost to Marcia Gay Harden, has the slightest of chances to pull off a big upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Actor in a Supporting Role<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
Benicio del Toro, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Jacob Elordi, \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Delroy Lindo, \u201cSinners\u201d
Sean Penn, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The supporting categories feel completely up in the air. Sean Penn, Jacob Elordi and Benicio del Toro have all won precursor awards, with Penn the favorite given his BAFTA and Actor Award victories. But the two richly deserving veterans and first-time nominees, Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd and Delroy Lindo, are real wild cards. I\u2019m tempted to say that the international vote will tip the scales for Skarsg\u00e5rd, but on a complete hunch I\u2019m going for Lindo, who wasn\u2019t even nominated by Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and Actor Award voters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His Oscar nomination carries the same \u201che\u2019s overdue!\u201d feeling as Skarsg\u00e5rd\u2019s, but \u201cSinners\u201d also feels historic in a way \u201cSentimental Value\u201d doesn\u2019t. Still, if Penn wins, as most people expect him to, I\u2019ll feel dumb about following my hunch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner<\/em>: Delroy Lindo, \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Delroy\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tDelroy Lindo on His 'Sinners' Performance That Finally Landed Him an Oscar Nom<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Best Actress in a Supporting Role <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
Elle Fanning, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d
Wunmi Mosaku, \u201cSinners\u201d
Teyana Taylor, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is another category that could go in a number of different directions, with Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor strong possibilities if \u201cSinners\u201d or \u201cOne Battle\u201d gets on a roll with voters. But everybody loves Amy Madigan, whose only other nomination was 40 (!) years ago. (Weren\u2019t we just talking about actors who are overdue?) Her narrative might be irresistible, even if the numbers are discouraging: Only eight times in Oscar history has an actress won in this category as her film\u2019s only nominee.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cBugonia\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two writing categories seem pretty cut-and-dried \u2013 which makes sense, since the Best Picture winner has also won a writing Oscar 16 times in the last 20 years. One of the best-pic frontrunners is in each of the two screenplay categories, with \u201cOne Battle\u201d facing a formidable adapted-screenplay contender in \u201cHamnet.\u201d But it won at the Writers Guild Awards against the same lineup of fellow nominees, and it\u2019s likely to do the same thing at the Oscars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Delroy Lindo in “Sinners” (Warner Bros)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cBlue Moon\u201d
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other Best Picture favorite, \u201cSinners,\u201d is in this category, where its toughest competition might be \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d \u201cSinners\u201d won at BAFTA, Critics Choice and the Writers Guild Awards and isn\u2019t expected to have much trouble winning here, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Animated Feature Film<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:
<\/em>\u201cArco\u201d
\u201cElio\u201d
\u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
\u201cLittle Am\u00e9lie or the Character of Rain\u201d
\u201cZootopia 2\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the small European film (\u201cFlow\u201d) beat the big, expensive epics (\u201cInside Out 2\u201d and \u201cThe Wild Robot\u201d). This year, two small European films (\u201cArco\u201d and \u201cLittle Am\u00e9lie\u201d) may split the vote, and both they and the two Disney\/Pixar films (\u201cElio\u201d and \u201cZootopia 2\u201d) will likely do what they\u2019ve been doing all season long: watch while the Netflix\/Sony Animation juggernaut \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d<\/a> picks up the award. \u201cZootopia\u201d has an outside chance to pull off an upset, but as the song says, things are \u201cGolden\u201d for \u201cKPop.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Stellan
Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd and Renate Reinsve in “Sentimental Value” (Neon)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best International Feature Film<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
Brazil, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
France, \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
Norway, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Spain, \u201cSir\u00e2t\u201d
Tunisia, \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In awards circles, a new rule of thumb is to never underestimate Brazil \u2013 witness the Golden Globes, where \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d scored upset wins in the Best Actor and Best Motion Picture \u2013 Foreign Language categories. But even with an increasingly international Academy, there is nowhere near as high a percentage of Brazilian voters for the Oscars as for the Golden Globes. And while \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d received an impressive four Oscar nominations, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d earned nine, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and four for acting, tying \u201cOne Battle\u201d for the most acting noms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One baffling question: Given the recent events in Iran and the fact that writer-director Jafar Panahi received a one-year jail sentence in absentia for making \u201cIt Was Just an Accident,\u201d<\/a> why didn\u2019t his film get more traction in the race? Or maybe it did, and we just won\u2019t know that until Sunday evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cSentimental Value\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Renate\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\t'Sentimental Value' Actresses Describe Feeling 'Limitless' While Filming Acclaimed Family Drama<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Best Documentary Feature Film<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cThe Alabama Solution\u201d
\u201cCome See Me in the Good Light\u201d
\u201cCutting Through Rocks\u201d
\u201cMr. Nobody Against Putin\u201d
\u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The humanity of \u201cCome See Me in the Good Light\u201d or the good humor of \u201cMr. Nobody Against Putin\u201d make those films contenders, and there\u2019s a chance that the large international contingent of voters could coalesce around one of the two non-U.S. films, \u201cMr. Nobody\u201d or \u201cCutting Through Rocks.\u201d But \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor,\u201d a damning portrait of race in America built mostly from security-cam and police bodycam footage, has had the feel of a winner throughout the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner<\/em>: \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Casting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:
<\/em>\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first year for the new casting category, the nominees are mostly the top Best Picture contenders, with the Brazilian drama \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d being the only surprise. Like many categories, this will probably come down to \u201cOne Battle\u201d vs. \u201cSinners.\u201d The latter film seems to have the edge, given its wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the Casting Society\u2019s Artios Awards \u2013 but it\u2019s worth noting that it didn\u2019t go up against \u201cOne Battle\u201d at Artios, because its casting director isn\u2019t a member of the CSA so the film wasn\u2019t eligible.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Cinematography<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As fun as it might be to imagine an upset win for \u201cTrain Dreams,\u201d this is most likely another \u201cOne Battle\u201d\/\u201cSinners\u201d showdown. While Autumn Durald Arkapaw once seemed destined to become the first-ever female and first-ever Black cinematography winner for \u201cSinners,\u201d recent awards have been going to Michael Bauman for \u201cOne Battle\u201d \u2013 including the key prize from the American Society of Cinematographers, which has gone to the Oscar winner six times in the last 10 years. (And when the ASC gives its award to a Best Picture nominee, as it did this year, the match is even stronger.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Film Editing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cF1\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Cinema Editors\u2019 ACE Eddie Awards didn\u2019t help clarify this race, because ACE gave its comedy award to \u201cOne Battle\u201d and its drama award to \u201cSinners.\u201d Then there\u2019s \u201cF1,\u201d the likely winner in the sound category, which might be a real threat in editing because of the odd correlation between those two categories that resulted in eight matches in nine years between 2014 and 2022. Then again, editing and sound haven\u2019t matched for the last three years, in which the editing Oscar has always gone to the Best Picture winner.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Frankenstein
Production design drawing of Victor Frankenstein’s laboratory (Netflix)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Production Design <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even people who didn\u2019t embrace Guillermo del Toro\u2019s \u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/a> conceded that the movie looks amazing, and it\u2019s likely that Academy voters will do the same. From its laboratory to its majestic ship stuck in the Arctic wastes, del Toro\u2019s film has a scale and grandeur that seems impossible not to celebrate \u2013 in this category, and in two other visual categories as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tHow 'Frankenstein\u2019s' BAFTA-Winning Team Brought the Creature Back From the Dead | How I Did It<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Best Costume Design<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Production design and costume design go to the same film less than half the time, but \u201cFrankenstein\u201d is the kind of massively detailed film that has pulled off the twofer in the past: \u201cPoor Things,\u201d \u201cBlack Panther,\u201d \u201cMad Max: Fury Road,\u201d \u201cThe Grand Budapest Hotel\u201d \u2026 Costume design might be the shakiest of the three predicted \u201cFrankenstein\u201d wins, but it\u2019s not very shaky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Makeup and Hairstyling <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cKokuho\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d
\u201cThe Smashing Machine\u201d
\u201cThe Ugly Stepsister\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Films that win production and costume design don\u2019t usually feature bravura makeup, but \u201cFrankenstein\u201d does. For a while, this award went consistently to the artists who transformed actors into real people (Winston Churchill, Dick Cheney, Megyn Kelly, Tammy Faye Bakker \u2026 ) but it\u2019s more recently swung back to bravura showcases for prosthetics (\u201cThe Whale,\u201d \u201cPoor Things,\u201d \u201cThe Substance\u201d), and it should continue in that vein this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\""KPop
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Original Song<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cDear Me\u201d from \u201cDiane Warren: Relentless\u201d
\u201cGolden\u201d from \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
\u201cI Lied to You\u201d from \u201cSinners\u201d 
\u201cSweet Dreams of Joy\u201d from \u201cViva Verdi!\u201d
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d from \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the pop songs split the vote and give a win to the operatic aria, \u201cSweet Dreams of Joy?\u201d Will Diane Warren finally win in her 17th nomination now that a rule change has put songwriters\u2019 names on the Oscar ballot? Will \u201cSinners\u201d\u2019 status as a Best Picture favorite give the big song that backs its most memorable scene a boost? Well, no. Because \u201cGolden\u201d is a pop-culture sensation that was nominated for four Grammys, including Song of the Year. Plus, the recent Winter Olympics blasted the song at every opportunity. Resistance is futile.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cGolden\u201d from \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Original Score<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cBugonia\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s where the music of \u201cSinners\u201d will register most strongly. Ludwig Goransson\u2019s blues-based score serves as the heartbeat of the film and has given it an edge over its competitors \u2013 though there\u2019s bold, adventurous and moving music in the category from a quartet of European composers: Jerskin Fendrix (\u201cBugonia\u201d), Alexandre Desplat (\u201cFrankenstein\u201d), Max Richter (\u201cHamnet\u201d) and Jonny Greenwood (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best Sound<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cF1\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d 
\u201cSir\u00e2t\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This could be another \u201cSinners\u201d victory, since that film did win an award from the Motion Picture Sound Editors on Sunday. But the other major sound organization, the Cinema Audio Society, honored \u201cF1\u201d the previous night, and that Formula One drama is likely to become the second recent racing movie (after 2019\u2019s \u201cFord v Ferrari\u201d) and the second recent Joseph Kosinski movie (after 2022\u2019s \u201cTop Gun: Maverick\u201d) to win.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cF1\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"avatar-fire-and-ash-sam-worthington\"
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Disney\/20th Century)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Visual Effects<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d
\u201cF1\u201d
\u201cJurassic World Rebirth\u201d
\u201cThe Lost Bus\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s one germane precedent: In the last 53 years, only one film not nominated for Best Picture has beaten a best-pic nominee in the category. (That would be 2016\u2019s \u201cEx Machina,\u201d which beat \u201cMad Max: Fury Road,\u201d \u201cThe Martian\u201d and \u201cThe Revenant.\u201d) But here\u2019s another germane precedent: No \u201cAvatar\u201d movie has ever lost in this category, with the original taking the award in 2010 and its sequel doing the same in 2023. Can James Cameron\u2019s saga become the first franchise since \u201cThe Lord of the Rings\u201d to go three-for-three? \u201cSinners\u201d and \u201cF1\u201d stand in its way, with the former being a particular threat if the third \u201cAvatar\u201d feels like a case of been-there-done-that. On the other hand, it\u2019s freakin’ \u201cAvatar.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner<\/em>: \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tAll the 2026 Oscar-Nominated Documentary Shorts Reviewed: 4 Heartbreakers, 3 Donkeys<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Best Documentary Short Film <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cAll the Empty Rooms\u201d
\u201cArmed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud\u201d
\u201cChildren No More: \u2018Were and Are Gone\u2019\u201d
\u201cThe Devil Is Busy\u201d
\u201cPerfectly a Strangeness\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three Oscar shorts categories can be maddening; for every time I nail the winners, there\u2019s another instance in which the film I think is least likely to succeed takes home the statuette. This year\u2019s doc-short lineup consists of serious films about school shootings, conflict journalism, killings in Gaza and abortion, plus a magnificently odd mood piece in which donkeys wander around an abandoned observatory in Chile.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The winner may depend on the mood of the voters who devote a couple of hours to watching all the films \u2013 but \u201cAll the Empty Rooms,\u201d which follows CBS News reporter Steve Hartman as he visits the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings, is particularly wrenching in its quiet way.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cAll the Empty Rooms\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
“Papillon”\/”Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Best Animated Short Film <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cThe Butterfly\u201d
\u201cForever Green\u201d
\u201cThe Girl Who Cried Pearls\u201d 
\u201cRetirement Plan\u201d
\u201cThe Three Sisters\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voters in this category sometimes go for the most ambitious or artistic nominee, sometimes to the punchiest and most commercial, sometimes for the most personal. This year, it feels like a tossup: \u201cThe Girl Who Cried Pearls\u201d is the most visually distinctive and the only stop-motion nominee, \u201cRetirement Plan\u201d is the simplest and funniest (particularly to viewers of advancing years), \u201cForevergreen\u201d might be the most commercial and \u201cButterfly\u201d tells a story set in pre- and post-World War II Germany through animated paintings.  The last of those might tick the most boxes for voters, but that\u2019s just a guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cButterfly\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tAll the 2026 Oscar-Nominated Animated Shorts Reviewed: Cute Bears, Love Quadrangles and Nazi Atrocities<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Best Live Action Short Film<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominees:<\/em>
\u201cButcher\u2019s Stain\u201d
\u201cA Friend of Dorothy\u201d
\u201cJane Austen\u2019s Period Drama\u201d
\u201cThe Singers\u201d
\u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is one of the strongest lineups of live-action shorts nominees in years, a varied collection of work that for the most part balances social commentary with the right amount of humor. The Israeli-set \u201cButcher\u2019s Stain\u201d is the timeliest and \u201cJane Austen\u2019s Period Drama\u201d is the funniest, but the three that have a real shot of winning are probably \u201cA Friend of Dorothy,\u201d a touching story with a beautiful performance by British acting legend Miriam Margolyes; \u201cThe Singers,\u201d a richly shot Netflix film set in a bar where the grizzled patrons turn out to be unexpectedly great singers; and \u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva,\u201d a black-and-white French film set in a world where kissing is banned and money has been replaced by slaps in the face. Any of them would be winners worth celebrating, but the way in which an entire world is created and fleshed out in \u201cTwo People\u201d might push it to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(But remember my caveat at the beginning of the shorts discussion.)  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicted winner: <\/em>\u201cTwo People Exchanging Saliva\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t

\n\t\tBest Picture\t<\/h2>\n\t
\n\t\tContender<\/span>\n\t\tProbability<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  1. \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOne Battle After Another<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tProbability:<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t99%\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tNo change:<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t0% –<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t