![\"Delroy](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.thewrap.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Sinners-Actor-Awards.jpeg?fit=300%2C169&quality=89&ssl=1\")
\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t'Sinners' Topples 'One Battle' at Actors Awards (Complete Winners List)<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
Here are some of the lessons we can take from these latest wrinkles in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The awards that \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d has won mean more than the ones that \u201cSinners\u201d has won.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nWinning the Actor Awards\u2019 ensemble category is a great thing for a movie that has Oscar Best Picture aspirations. \u201cOppenheimer\u201d did it, \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d did it, \u201cCODA\u201d did it — and they all went on to win the Oscar. (In fact, the ensemble award has served as a canary in a coal mine for a string of Oscar surprises: \u201cShakespeare in Love,\u201d \u201cCrash,\u201d \u201cCODA\u201d \u2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But just as often, as recent ensemble winners and Oscar also-rans \u201cConclave\u201d and \u201cThe Trial of the Chicago 7\u201d can attest, the 150,000-plus SAG-AFTRA voters do not echo their substantially fewer, substantially more international colleagues in the Academy. Overall, half the ensemble winners at the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards have won Best Picture, and half haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, several of the awards that have gone to \u201cOne Battle\u201d \u2013 the Critics Choice Award for Best Film, the Directors Guild Award and the Producers Guild Award \u2013 have success rates on the high side of 60%, with the DGA and PGA nearing 75%. And since the Oscars and the PGA both moved from five to 10 nominees and introduced ranked-choice voting to determine the big winner, the producers have accurately predicted the Oscar winner more than 81% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a vacuum, if you look at the major awards that each of the top two contenders have won so far, \u201cOne Battle\u201d clearly has the lead, the Actor Awards wins for \u201cSinners\u201d notwithstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t![\""One](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.thewrap.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/One-Battle-After-Another-Scene.jpg?fit=300%2C169&quality=89&ssl=1\")
\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tProducers Guild Awards: 'One Battle After Another' Wins Best Picture Award<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\nBut the timing favors \u201cSinners.\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nFor weeks, it has looked as if \u201cOne Battle\u201d was inevitable, with its head start courtesy of the Gotham Awards, the major critics awards , the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. For \u201cSinners\u201d to have any chance, it was going to need to get some kind of momentum, and every award that went to \u201cOne Battle\u201d in February suggested that the momentum wasn\u2019t happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the calendar was deceptive. In February \u201cOne Battle\u201d won the Directors Guild Award, but those ballots were cast between Jan. 8 and Feb. 6. And it won the PGA, where voting started on Jan. 16 and ended on Feb. 3, a full 25 days before the envelope was opened. (The one exception was BAFTA, which conducted its final voting from Jan. 28 through Feb. 17.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, most of those \u201cOne Battle\u201d wins mostly told us what voters were thinking back in January. \u00a0The major award that told us what they were thinking more recently was the Actor Award, which didn\u2019t close its polls until Feb. 27, two days before the ceremony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019re looking for evidence of \u201cSinners\u201d momentum, that might be it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The important win for \u201cSinners\u201d wasn\u2019t the ensemble award.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nEven after \u201cOne Battle\u201d won the PGA on Saturday, the consensus was that the Actor Awards would be the one awards show where it would lose. \u201cSinners\u201d was the favorite going in, buoyed by its rich and varied cast and by a history of SAG-AFTRA voters giving the ensemble award to movies with large Black casts, even if those films wouldn\u2019t go on to win the top Oscar: Coogler\u2019s \u201cBlack Panther\u201d in 2018, \u201cHidden Figures\u201d in 2016, \u201cThe Help\u201d in 2011 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So if \u201cSinners\u201d has only won the ensemble award, the pundits would have shrugged and moved on. But the fact that it also scored the night\u2019s biggest film upset when Michael B. Jordan took the Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role award, for which Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet was favored, gave the film an unexpected one-two punch that felt significant. And when Shrine Exhibition Hall erupted into a standing ovation for both wins, you couldn\u2019t help but think back to 2020, when the SAG ensemble award for \u201cParasite\u201d was in many ways the first tangible sign of how much Hollywood would come to love giving awards to what was then an Oscar longshot.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t![\"John](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.thewrap.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Michael-B-Jordan-BAFTAs.jpeg?fit=300%2C169&quality=89&ssl=1\")
\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tBAFTA Apologizes 'Unreservedly' to Delroy Lindo, Michael B. Jordan for Involuntary Slur at Ceremony<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\nWe might be putting too much importance on precursor awards.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOf course you have to judge the race based on history, but the last decade and a half of the Oscars has seen history precedent grow increasingly wobbly. From 1996 to 2018, you absolutely couldn\u2019t win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination, but then \u201cThe Shape of Water\u201d did it and \u201cNomadland\u201d did it again. A film not in English couldn\u2019t win Best Picture, until \u201cParasite\u201d did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now, you can find statistics to tell you why \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d can\u2019t lose Best Picture, and stats to tell you why \u201cSinners\u201d will win. Which means that there\u2019s a time to rely on precedent, and a time to back off and understand that this is a different Academy and we can\u2019t swing back and forth based on what\u2019s happened in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We now know everything we\u2019re going to know until Oscar night.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOscar voting doesn\u2019t end until Thursday afternoon, and the show doesn\u2019t take place until March 15. In between then and now, the Writers Guild of America will give out its annual awards, becoming the last of the four major Hollywood guilds to chime in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But rather than helping to clarify a confusing situation, the WGA almost certainly won\u2019t help at all. That\u2019s because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d will likely win in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and \u201cSinners\u201d will do the same in Best Original Screenplay, with the \u201cSinners\u201d path to victory made easier by guild rules that disqualified the Oscar-nominated screenplays for \u201cBlue Moon,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d and \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other awards coming up between now and the Oscars won\u2019t be much help, either. \u201cOne Battle\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d are both nominated for the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but the ASC winner has only predicted Best Picture once in the last decade, and three times this century. The Cinema Audio Society Awards and the Motion Picture Sound Editors\u2019 Golden Reel Awards are in pretty much the same boat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So as far as usable intel goes, we already have it. Good luck to all of us. <\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t
\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\tProducers Guild Awards: 'One Battle After Another' Wins Best Picture Award<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
But the timing favors \u201cSinners.\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nFor weeks, it has looked as if \u201cOne Battle\u201d was inevitable, with its head start courtesy of the Gotham Awards, the major critics awards , the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. For \u201cSinners\u201d to have any chance, it was going to need to get some kind of momentum, and every award that went to \u201cOne Battle\u201d in February suggested that the momentum wasn\u2019t happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the calendar was deceptive. In February \u201cOne Battle\u201d won the Directors Guild Award, but those ballots were cast between Jan. 8 and Feb. 6. And it won the PGA, where voting started on Jan. 16 and ended on Feb. 3, a full 25 days before the envelope was opened. (The one exception was BAFTA, which conducted its final voting from Jan. 28 through Feb. 17.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, most of those \u201cOne Battle\u201d wins mostly told us what voters were thinking back in January. \u00a0The major award that told us what they were thinking more recently was the Actor Award, which didn\u2019t close its polls until Feb. 27, two days before the ceremony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019re looking for evidence of \u201cSinners\u201d momentum, that might be it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The important win for \u201cSinners\u201d wasn\u2019t the ensemble award.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nEven after \u201cOne Battle\u201d won the PGA on Saturday, the consensus was that the Actor Awards would be the one awards show where it would lose. \u201cSinners\u201d was the favorite going in, buoyed by its rich and varied cast and by a history of SAG-AFTRA voters giving the ensemble award to movies with large Black casts, even if those films wouldn\u2019t go on to win the top Oscar: Coogler\u2019s \u201cBlack Panther\u201d in 2018, \u201cHidden Figures\u201d in 2016, \u201cThe Help\u201d in 2011 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So if \u201cSinners\u201d has only won the ensemble award, the pundits would have shrugged and moved on. But the fact that it also scored the night\u2019s biggest film upset when Michael B. Jordan took the Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role award, for which Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet was favored, gave the film an unexpected one-two punch that felt significant. And when Shrine Exhibition Hall erupted into a standing ovation for both wins, you couldn\u2019t help but think back to 2020, when the SAG ensemble award for \u201cParasite\u201d was in many ways the first tangible sign of how much Hollywood would come to love giving awards to what was then an Oscar longshot.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\tRead Next<\/strong>
\n\t\t\tBAFTA Apologizes 'Unreservedly' to Delroy Lindo, Michael B. Jordan for Involuntary Slur at Ceremony<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\nWe might be putting too much importance on precursor awards.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOf course you have to judge the race based on history, but the last decade and a half of the Oscars has seen history precedent grow increasingly wobbly. From 1996 to 2018, you absolutely couldn\u2019t win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination, but then \u201cThe Shape of Water\u201d did it and \u201cNomadland\u201d did it again. A film not in English couldn\u2019t win Best Picture, until \u201cParasite\u201d did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now, you can find statistics to tell you why \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d can\u2019t lose Best Picture, and stats to tell you why \u201cSinners\u201d will win. Which means that there\u2019s a time to rely on precedent, and a time to back off and understand that this is a different Academy and we can\u2019t swing back and forth based on what\u2019s happened in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We now know everything we\u2019re going to know until Oscar night.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOscar voting doesn\u2019t end until Thursday afternoon, and the show doesn\u2019t take place until March 15. In between then and now, the Writers Guild of America will give out its annual awards, becoming the last of the four major Hollywood guilds to chime in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But rather than helping to clarify a confusing situation, the WGA almost certainly won\u2019t help at all. That\u2019s because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d will likely win in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and \u201cSinners\u201d will do the same in Best Original Screenplay, with the \u201cSinners\u201d path to victory made easier by guild rules that disqualified the Oscar-nominated screenplays for \u201cBlue Moon,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d and \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other awards coming up between now and the Oscars won\u2019t be much help, either. \u201cOne Battle\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d are both nominated for the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but the ASC winner has only predicted Best Picture once in the last decade, and three times this century. The Cinema Audio Society Awards and the Motion Picture Sound Editors\u2019 Golden Reel Awards are in pretty much the same boat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So as far as usable intel goes, we already have it. Good luck to all of us. <\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t
Even after \u201cOne Battle\u201d won the PGA on Saturday, the consensus was that the Actor Awards would be the one awards show where it would lose. \u201cSinners\u201d was the favorite going in, buoyed by its rich and varied cast and by a history of SAG-AFTRA voters giving the ensemble award to movies with large Black casts, even if those films wouldn\u2019t go on to win the top Oscar: Coogler\u2019s \u201cBlack Panther\u201d in 2018, \u201cHidden Figures\u201d in 2016, \u201cThe Help\u201d in 2011 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So if \u201cSinners\u201d has only won the ensemble award, the pundits would have shrugged and moved on. But the fact that it also scored the night\u2019s biggest film upset when Michael B. Jordan took the Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role award, for which Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet was favored, gave the film an unexpected one-two punch that felt significant. And when Shrine Exhibition Hall erupted into a standing ovation for both wins, you couldn\u2019t help but think back to 2020, when the SAG ensemble award for \u201cParasite\u201d was in many ways the first tangible sign of how much Hollywood would come to love giving awards to what was then an Oscar longshot.<\/p>\n\n\n
\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t\tBAFTA Apologizes 'Unreservedly' to Delroy Lindo, Michael B. Jordan for Involuntary Slur at Ceremony<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
We might be putting too much importance on precursor awards.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOf course you have to judge the race based on history, but the last decade and a half of the Oscars has seen history precedent grow increasingly wobbly. From 1996 to 2018, you absolutely couldn\u2019t win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination, but then \u201cThe Shape of Water\u201d did it and \u201cNomadland\u201d did it again. A film not in English couldn\u2019t win Best Picture, until \u201cParasite\u201d did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now, you can find statistics to tell you why \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d can\u2019t lose Best Picture, and stats to tell you why \u201cSinners\u201d will win. Which means that there\u2019s a time to rely on precedent, and a time to back off and understand that this is a different Academy and we can\u2019t swing back and forth based on what\u2019s happened in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We now know everything we\u2019re going to know until Oscar night.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nOscar voting doesn\u2019t end until Thursday afternoon, and the show doesn\u2019t take place until March 15. In between then and now, the Writers Guild of America will give out its annual awards, becoming the last of the four major Hollywood guilds to chime in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But rather than helping to clarify a confusing situation, the WGA almost certainly won\u2019t help at all. That\u2019s because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d will likely win in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and \u201cSinners\u201d will do the same in Best Original Screenplay, with the \u201cSinners\u201d path to victory made easier by guild rules that disqualified the Oscar-nominated screenplays for \u201cBlue Moon,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d and \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other awards coming up between now and the Oscars won\u2019t be much help, either. \u201cOne Battle\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d are both nominated for the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but the ASC winner has only predicted Best Picture once in the last decade, and three times this century. The Cinema Audio Society Awards and the Motion Picture Sound Editors\u2019 Golden Reel Awards are in pretty much the same boat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So as far as usable intel goes, we already have it. Good luck to all of us. <\/p>\n\n\n
\n\t
Oscar voting doesn\u2019t end until Thursday afternoon, and the show doesn\u2019t take place until March 15. In between then and now, the Writers Guild of America will give out its annual awards, becoming the last of the four major Hollywood guilds to chime in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But rather than helping to clarify a confusing situation, the WGA almost certainly won\u2019t help at all. That\u2019s because \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d will likely win in the Best Adapted Screenplay category and \u201cSinners\u201d will do the same in Best Original Screenplay, with the \u201cSinners\u201d path to victory made easier by guild rules that disqualified the Oscar-nominated screenplays for \u201cBlue Moon,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d and \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other awards coming up between now and the Oscars won\u2019t be much help, either. \u201cOne Battle\u201d and \u201cSinners\u201d are both nominated for the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, but the ASC winner has only predicted Best Picture once in the last decade, and three times this century. The Cinema Audio Society Awards and the Motion Picture Sound Editors\u2019 Golden Reel Awards are in pretty much the same boat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So as far as usable intel goes, we already have it. Good luck to all of us. <\/p>\n\n\n
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